Normalization of Relations and Demographic Trends - Inevitable Population Shrinkage and Aging    

Objavljeno : 30.04.2018. Štampa El. pošta bookmark

Serbia’s demographic data are ominous and even if the status of Kosovo is resolved and the door consequently opened to swifter economic and social prosperity, migration and population shrinkage and aging cannot be avoided, it says in a study entitled The Economic, Demographic and Social Effects of Different Scenarios of Normalized Relations Between Belgrade and Pristina, conducted with the support of the Open Society Foundation. The authors of the study analyzed the consequences of demographic trends and presented pessimistic estimates in the event of the absence of a solution acceptable to both sides, i.e. if the status quo remains.


The results of the analyzed population projects, in both scenarios, indicate further depopulation and intense aging. If the scenario, which the authors believe to be expected, and which envisions the successful resolution of Serbia-Kosovo relations and Serbia’s accession to the EU around the middle of the next decade, materializes, the number of inhabitants of Serbia would drop to 5.57 million in 2060, which is 21.5 percent less than in 2015. According to that projection, there would be 6.34 million people living in Serbia, equaling a decline of 10.7 percent.


It was estimated that the losses emanating from natural population movements in the period 2015-2060 would amount to 1.7 million (they would total 582,000 by 2030), while the negative impact of migration trends would exist until 2030, after which increased immigration would lead to a smaller decrease in the size of the population. The workforce, the study says, would decrease by 26 percent (10 percent by 2030), whereas the old-age dependency ratio, which is currently 30.3, would be 43.7 and would rise to 57.4 by 2060.


The status quo scenario envisages that the relations between Serbia and Kosovo will stay unresolved, i.e. will not be normalized, that Serbia’s negotiations with the European Union will end in failure, which in total excludes a more favorable demographic and economic situation. The study claims that this scenario entails maintaining the value of demographic indicators at a status quo level (unchanged until the end of the projection period), which would lead to a reduction of the overall population of 44 percent, meaning that Serbia would have 3.96 million inhabitants in 2060.


The diminishing of population size due to the negative birth/death ratio in the status quo scenario would equal a enormous 2.7 million by 2060, i.e. 707,000 by 2030. The number of inhabitants in 2030 would be 6.20 million, which is a 13 percent decrease. This scenario also takes into account greater migration losses (183,000 people by 2030, i.e. 444,000 by 2060).


The absence of change in terms of demographic and activity rates would also result in a conspicuous shrinking of labor resources – by 50.5 percent by 2060, meaning that there will be more than 1.5 million fewer workers then. By 2030 the reduction would be 17 percent, i.e. more than 512,000. “It is certain that, if the expected scenario which entails Serbia’s accession to the European Union by 2025 does not happen, there will be even bigger migration losses relative to the current situation, due to the expected rise in the emigration wave,” the study authors warn.


From a demographic point of view, according to the authors, that would adversely affect population development, given that it increases depopulation in the country, reduces the total number of births, decreases workforce resources and has a negative impact on the population age structure.


Experts of the Institute of Social Sciences also warn about the fact that the depopulation effect in Serbia is practically unstoppable. Ivan Marinkovic, a research assistant of the Institute’s Demographic Research Center, says that if the existing values of birth, death and migration continues, in half a century, i.e. in 2061 the total number of inhabitants of Serbia (without Kosovo) would be between 4.2 and 4.5 million. “Whatever variant of the fertility and mortality trends we apply, Serbia will in 2061 (50 years after the last population census) will have fewer inhabitants than in 2011,” he said.


Even if, hypothetically speaking, Swedish reproductive norms were copied, Serbia would have fewer citizens by 2061 than it did after World War II. The Swedes have a birth level close to the one required for simple reproduction, approximately two children per woman, which is among the highest in Europe. Sweden reached that goal having spent decades investing in its population policy. “It is precisely that datum which is most illustrative of how the current age and gender structure limits population growth,” said Marinkovic.


He went on to say that the extension of life expectancy and the long-time fertility level below simple reproduction, as well as the emigration of predominantly young people, were the main factors of demographic aging in Serbia and the current population shrinkage. “As a consequence of multidecade unfavorable demographic trends, the age structure is increasingly becoming a limiting factor in the defining of population policy measures,” he added.


In the period 1991-2011, in his words, the number of women aged 15-49 decreased by 250,000, while at the same time the population of women in the so-called optimal reproductive age (20-34) decreased by close to 90,000.


Source: Beta

Photo: Beta


Pošaljite komentar
Pošaljite komentar



Elektroprivreda Srbije

21.05.2018, Beograd
Organizator: CEDEF
17.05.2018, Beograd
Organizator: CEP, EFB
16.05.2018, Beograd
Organizator: EU info centar
16.05.2018, Beograd
Organizator: EU info centar
16.05.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Centar za spoljnu politiku
14.05.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Koalicija 27
10.05.2018, Beograd
Organizator: AŽC, UŽ Peščanik
09.05.2018, Beograd
Organizator: EU info centar i Delegacija EU u Srbiji
10.05.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Fondacija Fridrih Ebert i Centar za spoljnu politku
10.05.2018, Beograd
Organizator: EPuS, FEFA
25.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: USAID, EPuS, CEP
25.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: ISAC fond
23.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: NKEU
24.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: REECO Srbija
20.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Udruženja
16.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Delegacija EU, EU info centar i Kolarčeva zadužbina
13.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Koalicija prEUgovor
13.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Fridrih Ebert
16. i 17.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: EFB
11.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: CEP
11.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Beogradski centar za ljudska prava
12.04.2018, Beograd
Organizator: EPuS
23.03.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Beogradski centar za ljudska prava
16.03.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Delegacija EU u Srbiji, EU info centar
13.03.2018, Beograd
Organizator: CEP, TEN, BENCHER
13.03.2018, Beograd
Organizator: ISAC fond
14.03.2018, Beograd
Organizator: EU info centar i PLAC II
08.03.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Balkanmagazin i EPS
08.03.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Francuski institut u Srbiji
27.02.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Evropska fondacija za demokratiju
13.02.2018, Beograd
Organizator: BCBP
08.02.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Evropska platforma za ZB
07.02.2018, Beograd
Organizator: CFP, Fondacija Hans Zajdel
01.02.2018, Beograd
Organizator: BCBP
30. i 31.01.2018, Beograd
Organizator: MDULS, ReSPA
24.1.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Tempus - Erazmus+
16.1.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Ambasada Bugarske
17.01.2018, Beograd
Organizator: Koalicija za REKOM
21.12.2017, Beograd
Organizator: POINTPULS i RAI
19.12.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Koalicija prEUgovor
14.12.2017, Priština
Organizator: Energetska zajednica
13.12.2017, Beograd
Organizator: EU info centar, CAPE
13.12.2017, Beograd
Organizator: EPuS
08.12.2017, Beograd
Organizator: EPuS, EIB
08.12.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Savet Evrope, EU
07.12.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Delegacija EU, EU Info centar, KCSD, Fondacija Divac
05.12.2017, Beograd
06.12.2017, Beograd
Organizator: EPuS
05.12.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Delegacija EU i RZS
29.11.2017, Beograd
Organizator: EPuS i Fondacija Fridrih Ebert
17.11..2017, Beograd
Organizator: Koalicija 27
15.11.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Delegacija EU, UNDP
15.11.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Balkanmagazin
14.11.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Delegacija EU, Ministarstvo rada, EU info centar
07.11.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Delegacija EU, EU info centar, PKS
03.11.2017, Beograd
Organizator: ISAC fond i Fondacija Fridrih Ebert
01.11.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Evropski pokret u Srbiji
31.10.2017, Beograd
Organizator: EPuS i FPN
01 - 02.11.2017, Novi Sad-Beograd
Organizator: Francuski institut
25.10.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Koalicija prEUgovor
24.10.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Evropski pokret u Srbiji
23.10.2017, Beograd
Organizator: RYCO
17.10.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Fondacija Tempus
12.10.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Građanske inicijative
11.10.2017, Beograd
Organizator: TACSO
10.10.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Delegacija EU i Tim UN
09.10.2017, Brisel
Organizator: Savet za regionalnu saradnju
06.10.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Fondacija Tempus
05.10.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Forum za međunarodne odnose Evropskog pokreta u Srbiji i Fondacija Fridirh Ebert
02.10.2017, Beograd
Organizator: CZKD
28.09.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Fondacija Tempus
26.09.2017, Beograd
Organizator: EUNIC Srbija
22.09.2017, Novi Sad
Organizator: CINS
21.09.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Ministarstvo pravde
20.09.2017, Pančevo
Organizator: Gradska uprava Pančeva
19.09.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Delegacija EU, EU info centar i SKGO
18.09.2017, Beograd
Organizator: BOŠ i Kancelarija za saradnju sa civilnim društvom
15.09.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Beograd Prajd
14.09.2017, Beograd
Organizator: POINTPULS i BCBP
15.09.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Delegacija EU u Srbiji
14.09.2017, Vlasinsko jezero
Organizator: Evropski PROGRES
13.09.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Centar za spoljnu politiku
06.09.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Ujedinjene nacije
05.09.2017, Beč
Organizator: Energetska zajednica
25.08.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Balkanmagazin i EPS
25.07.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Beogradski centar za bezbednosnu politiku
06.07.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Ministarstvo zaštite životne sredine i Nacionalni konvent
04.07.2017, Beograd
Organizator: ISAC fond i Fridrih Ebert fondacija
30.06.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Centar za spoljnu politiku i Fridrih Ebert fondacija
22.06.2017, Beograd
Organizator: CEP, EU Info centar
22.06.2017, Beograd
Organizator: EU info centar
22.06.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Fondacija Hajnrih Bel
15 - 17.06.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Evropa Nostra, Evropa Nostra Srbija, Mreža za nasleđe JIE
14.06.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Ambasada Italije u Srbiji
15.06.2017, Beograd
Organizator: Novinska agencija Beta
18.05.2017, Beograd
Organizator: EU info centar
18.05.2017, Beograd
Organizator: EU info centar
25.05.2017, Beograd
Organizator: EU Info centar


EurActiv franšiza za Srbiju:
Novinska agencija BETA, direktor: Radomir Diklić, glavni i odgovorni urednik: Dragan Janjić
Novinska Agencija Beta
Developed by Zorica Filipović, Predrag Tošić